Every unusual day

Found and checked automatically: the pipeline first, then the behaviour behind each move.

This page is produced by scripts/watch.py, which is never told a date. For every token and day it scores transfers, value moved and the failure rate against the same weekday over the previous eight weeks, and groups unusual days into episodes. For each episode it reads the raw rows of the peak day and of seven comparable days (the same weekday, in the most recent ordinary weeks before the episode), and decides in a fixed order:

  1. Is the data wrong? Missing or repeated blocks, an incomplete day, repeated rows, a mart that disagrees with its raw rows, amounts that changed units, a day the source rewrote later.
  2. If not, does one group explain the move? One program (an exact gas fingerprint), new addresses, a few addresses, dust, the issuer minting or burning, a few very large transfers. Removing the group must bring the metric back towards normal.
  3. If no group does, the change is broad, and the page says so rather than inventing a reason.

133

episodes of unusual days found

133

checked on the raw rows

61

days the pipeline checks flag on their own

4 of 4

hand investigations matched

Does it agree with the investigations done by hand?

The four cases on the Investigations page were worked out by hand. The automatic rules never see them; they are only used afterwards, to score what the rules decided on their own.

Case Token Found on its own Automatic verdict Verdict by hand Same kind
USDC and USDT failure spike, Nov 2025 USDT yes Bots and automation new automated senders Yes
USDC and USDT failure spike, Nov 2025 USDC yes Bots and automation new automated senders Yes
PYUSD failure spikes, Aug-Sep 2024 PYUSD yes Bots and automation bots, not users Yes
600 trillion PYUSD, 15 Oct 2025 PYUSD yes Supply event a real mint and burn Yes

When they happened

Each dot is an episode, at its peak day. Coloured dots were checked on the raw rows; the size shows how far the day was from usual.

What the checks found

Newest first. Click a finding to see its evidence.

Bots and automation 51 Broad real change 42 A few actors 37 Supply event 1 Data in doubt 1 New senders 1

24 Sep 2026USDT transfers down · 1 day · 584k vs 790k (0.74×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 584,224 transfers against 785,121 on a comparable day (-200,897).
  • 137,180 transfers under 1 token, against 293,547 on a comparable day: 78% of the drop.
  • The network's average fee was 7.7× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 70% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

20 Sep 2026USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 1.02% vs 0.22%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 1.02% against 0.27% on comparable days.
  • 47% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 1.9% of the time, regular senders 0.21%.
  • 89% of failures came from new addresses.

Confidence: strong

13 Sep 2026USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 0.47% vs 0.22%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 0.47% against 0.27% on comparable days.
  • 51% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 0.7% of the time, regular senders 0.18%.
  • 81% of failures came from new addresses.

Confidence: strong

20 Aug 2026USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 0.60% vs 0.26%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 0.60% against 0.25% on comparable days.
  • 40% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 1.1% of the time, regular senders 0.24%.
  • 77% of failures came from new addresses.

Confidence: strong

18 Aug 2026USDT transfers down · 1 day · 672k vs 1.01M (0.67×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 672,370 transfers against 948,161 on a comparable day (-275,791).
  • 243,036 transfers under 1 token, against 502,754 on a comparable day: 94% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 0.64× their comparable days.
  • 97% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

10 Aug 2026PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 7.54k vs 5.5k (1.37×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.

Confidence: moderate

07 Jul 2026USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 1.03% vs 0.24%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (35,974 gas)
  • 1,022 calls from 2 addresses used exactly 35,974 gas (71% of failed calls, 1% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.30%.
  • Failure rate 1.03% against 0.26% on comparable days.
  • 42% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 0.5% of the time, regular senders 1.44%.

Confidence: strong

21 Jun 2026PYUSD value moved down · 1 day · 14M vs 140M (0.10×)Data in doubt
The source rewrote this day, and no group explains the move
  • 92% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 84% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

16 Jun 2026USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 0.79% vs 0.37%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (120,000 gas)
  • 1,718 calls from 74 addresses used exactly 120,000 gas (64% of failed calls, 5% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.28%.
  • Failure rate 0.79% against 0.36% on comparable days.
  • 48% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 1.4% of the time, regular senders 0.21%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

06 Jun 2026USDC value moved up · 3 days · 136B vs 21.6B (6.30×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 136B moved against 25.8B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 127B, against 19.1B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 98% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 2.23× their comparable days.
  • 98% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

27 May 2026USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 1.05% vs 0.34%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (47,762 gas)
  • 963 calls from 963 addresses used exactly 47,762 gas (73% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.28%.
  • Failure rate 1.05% against 0.33% on comparable days.
  • 42% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 2.3% of the time, regular senders 0.14%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

24 May 2026PYUSD failure rate up · 1 day · 1.92% vs 0.037%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (38,258 gas)
  • 45 calls from 1 addresses used exactly 38,258 gas (78% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.44%.
  • Failure rate 1.92% against 0.047% on comparable days.
  • 31% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 6.1% of the time, regular senders 0.048%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

19 May 2026USDC transfers up · 1 day · 950k vs 562k (1.69×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 950,157 transfers against 590,007 on a comparable day (+360,150).
  • 644,751 transfers under 1 token, against 240,074 on a comparable day: 100% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 1.54× their comparable days.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

12 May 2026USDT transfers down · 1 day · 593k vs 833k (0.71×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 593,109 transfers against 868,211 on a comparable day (-275,102).
  • 172,291 transfers under 1 token, against 396,251 on a comparable day: 81% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.72× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 4.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 54% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

01 May 2026USDC transfers down · 1 day · 415k vs 629k (0.66×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 414,998 transfers against 614,460 on a comparable day (-199,462).
  • 86,839 transfers under 1 token, against 278,992 on a comparable day: 96% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.68×, USDT 0.62× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 3.6× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 74% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

27 Apr 2026PYUSD transfers down · 1 day · 4.35k vs 7.22k (0.60×)A few actors
The busiest senders sent much less
  • 4,350 transfers against 7,218 on a comparable day (-2,868).
  • The week's 50 busiest senders sent 1,938 fewer transfers: 68% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 0.64×, USDT 0.55× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 4.9× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

27 Apr 2026USDT transfers down · 2 days · 458k vs 845k (0.54×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 458,100 transfers against 839,579 on a comparable day (-381,479).
  • 82,778 transfers under 1 token, against 379,177 on a comparable day: 78% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.65×, USDC 0.63× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 13.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 56% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

27 Apr 2026USDC transfers down · 2 days · 364k vs 599k (0.61×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 363,735 transfers against 591,817 on a comparable day (-228,082).
  • 61,559 transfers under 1 token, against 241,722 on a comparable day: 79% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.62×, USDT 0.53× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 11.8× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 58% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

26 Apr 2026USDC value moved down · 1 day · 14.1B vs 35B (0.40×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.27×, USDT 0.33× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 5.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 96% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

25 Apr 2026USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 3.89% vs 0.50%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 3.89% against 0.53% on comparable days.
  • 59% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 6.4% of the time, regular senders 0.24%.
  • 97% of failures came from new addresses.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 3.27×, USDT 5.69× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 2.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

22 Apr 2026USDC transfers down · 3 days · 395k vs 632k (0.62×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 394,634 transfers against 646,091 on a comparable day (-251,457).
  • 63,531 transfers under 1 token, against 295,262 on a comparable day: 92% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 0.54× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 18.0× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 75% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

22 Apr 2026USDT transfers down · 3 days · 504k vs 882k (0.57×)Bots and automation
A dust wave ended: fewer transfers under 1 token
  • 504,284 transfers against 937,527 on a comparable day (-433,243).
  • 88,735 transfers under 1 token, against 482,063 on a comparable day: 91% of the drop.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 0.61× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 18.0× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 72% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

19 Apr 2026PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 3.07B vs 103M (29.82×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 6.7× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 80% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

17 Apr 2026USDC transfers up · 1 day · 929k vs 616k (1.51×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 928,796 transfers against 614,460 on a comparable day (+314,336).
  • 564,325 transfers under 1 token, against 278,992 on a comparable day: 91% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 1.45× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 5.7× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

01 Apr 2026PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 1.76B vs 474M (3.70×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • 90% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

22 Mar 2026USDC value moved up · 1 day · 368B vs 38.1B (9.66×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 368B moved against 43.9B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 338B, against 37.6B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 93% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 3.39×, USDT 3.86× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 8.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

22 Mar 2026USDT value moved up · 1 day · 82.2B vs 16.3B (5.04×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 82.2B moved against 16.8B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 75.2B, against 12B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 97% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 2.03×, USDC 7.78× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 7.6× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 94% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

05 Feb 2026USDT value moved up · 1 day · 46.2B vs 19.7B (2.35×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 2.48×, USDC 1.83× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 13.3× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 58% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

31 Jan 2026USDT value moved up · 1 day · 18.5B vs 8.11B (2.28×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 2.71× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 34.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 62% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

24 Jan 2026USDT value moved up · 1 day · 16.3B vs 8.11B (2.01×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 16.3B moved against 8.84B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 10.5B, against 4.61B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 78% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 5.10×, USDC 1.89× their comparable days.
  • 76% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Caveats

  • 84% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.

Confidence: strong

10 Jan 2026PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 7.98k vs 5.66k (1.41×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.5× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

03 Jan 2026USDC transfers up · 4 days · 858k vs 381k (2.25×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 857,889 transfers against 343,412 on a comparable day (+514,477).
  • 550,608 transfers under 1 token, against 82,483 on a comparable day: 91% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.36×, USDT 3.49× their comparable days.
  • 81% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

03 Jan 2026USDT transfers up · 3 days · 1.47M vs 462k (3.19×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 1,472,581 transfers against 421,627 on a comparable day (+1,050,954).
  • 1,157,502 transfers under 1 token, against 122,992 on a comparable day: 98% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.36×, USDC 2.50× their comparable days.
  • 86% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

31 Dec 2025PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 9.69k vs 5.83k (1.66×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.83×, USDT 2.00× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

27 Dec 2025USDT transfers up · 3 days · 1.4M vs 460k (3.05×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 1,400,973 transfers against 421,627 on a comparable day (+979,346).
  • 1,114,193 transfers under 1 token, against 122,992 on a comparable day: 100% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 2.15× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 93% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

27 Dec 2025USDC transfers up · 3 days · 738k vs 369k (2.00×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 738,473 transfers against 343,412 on a comparable day (+395,061).
  • 518,443 transfers under 1 token, against 82,483 on a comparable day: 100% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 3.32× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

21 Dec 2025USDT transfers up · 3 days · 944k vs 393k (2.40×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 944,223 transfers against 408,915 on a comparable day (+535,308).
  • 656,763 transfers under 1 token, against 105,853 on a comparable day: 100% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.68× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 72% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

10 Dec 2025USDT failure rate up · 2 days · 3.26% vs 0.66%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (84,000 gas)
  • 7,095 calls from 1,319 addresses used exactly 84,000 gas (78% of failed calls, 1% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.75%.
  • Failure rate 3.26% against 0.64% on comparable days.
  • 56% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 4.4% of the time, regular senders 1.77%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 7.35×, USDC 9.13× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

04 Dec 2025USDC failure rate up · 3 days · 2.94% vs 0.38%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 2.94% against 0.36% on comparable days.
  • 67% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 4.3% of the time, regular senders 0.22%.
  • 97% of failures came from new addresses.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 3.98× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.0× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Caveats

  • 100% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.
  • Failed and successful rows were rewritten alike, so the rewrite did not create the failures.

Confidence: strong

03 Dec 2025USDT failure rate up · 3 days · 2.26% vs 0.65%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (50,000 gas)
  • 4,739 calls from 4,730 addresses used exactly 50,000 gas (71% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.67%.
  • Failure rate 2.26% against 0.64% on comparable days.
  • 58% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 3.5% of the time, regular senders 0.46%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 7.45× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Caveats

  • 100% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.
  • Failed and successful rows were rewritten alike, so the rewrite did not create the failures.

Confidence: strong

27 Nov 2025USDC failure rate up · 6 days · 19.46% vs 0.36%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 19.46% against 0.36% on comparable days.
  • 72% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 26.8% of the time, regular senders 0.29%.
  • 100% of failures came from new addresses.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 27.46× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Caveats

  • 100% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.
  • Failed and successful rows were rewritten alike, so the rewrite did not create the failures.

Confidence: strong

27 Nov 2025USDT failure rate up · 3 days · 17.71% vs 0.68%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (50,000 gas)
  • 55,271 calls from 54,740 addresses used exactly 50,000 gas (97% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.72%.
  • Failure rate 17.71% against 0.61% on comparable days.
  • 64% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 27.2% of the time, regular senders 1.00%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 52.82× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Caveats

  • 100% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.
  • Failed and successful rows were rewritten alike, so the rewrite did not create the failures.

Confidence: strong

22 Nov 2025USDT failure rate up · 3 days · 2.50% vs 0.63%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (26,511 gas)
  • 3,700 calls from 33 addresses used exactly 26,511 gas (72% of failed calls, 6% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.71%.
  • Failure rate 2.50% against 0.68% on comparable days.
  • 51% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 0.9% of the time, regular senders 4.16%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.2× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

02 Nov 2025USDT failure rate up · 2 days · 2.11% vs 0.66%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (23,000 gas)
  • 2,193 calls from 2,043 addresses used exactly 23,000 gas (55% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.97%.
  • Failure rate 2.11% against 0.65% on comparable days.
  • 50% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 3.7% of the time, regular senders 0.53%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 4.76× their comparable days.

Confidence: strong

02 Nov 2025USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 1.51% vs 0.33%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (23,000 gas)
  • 702 calls from 662 addresses used exactly 23,000 gas (51% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.75%.
  • Failure rate 1.51% against 0.33% on comparable days.
  • 59% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 2.3% of the time, regular senders 0.31%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.51×, USDT 3.26× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

30 Oct 2025USDT value moved up · 5 days · 133B vs 23.7B (5.62×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 133B moved against 20.6B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 118B, against 7.41B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 98% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.53× their comparable days.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

15 Oct 2025PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 600T vs 204M (2.95M×)Supply event
The issuer minted and burned tokens
  • 600T moved against 225M on a comparable day.
  • Minted 300T and burned 300T (from and to the zero address).
  • Transfers between holders moved 858M, 6.06× a comparable day.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 1.51× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.5× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

14 Oct 2025USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 1.06% vs 0.36%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (49,712 gas)
  • 1,032 calls from 166 addresses used exactly 49,712 gas (78% of failed calls, 1% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.23%.
  • Failure rate 1.06% against 0.35% on comparable days.
  • 46% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 0.9% of the time, regular senders 1.16%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 2.13× their comparable days.

Confidence: strong

11 Oct 2025USDT value moved up · 1 day · 41.4B vs 12.4B (3.33×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.91×, USDC 2.19× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 8.3× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 66% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

05 Oct 2025PYUSD transfers up · 2 days · 4.76k vs 3.46k (1.38×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.44×, USDT 1.44× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.2× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

02 Oct 2025USDC transfers up · 1 day · 491k vs 365k (1.35×)New senders
New senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 490,699 transfers against 374,050 on a comparable day (+116,649).
  • Addresses not seen on the comparable days made 187,099 transfers, against about 116,476 on a usual day.

Confidence: moderate

30 Sep 2025PYUSD transfers up · 5 days · 6k vs 4.06k (1.48×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.46×, USDT 1.37× their comparable days.

Confidence: moderate

26 Sep 2025PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 1.9B vs 122M (15.63×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 1.9B moved against 113M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 1.66B, against 98.1M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 87% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 1.85× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 83% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

23 Sep 2025PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 1.31B vs 162M (8.09×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 1.31B moved against 152M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 1.13B, against 120M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 87% of the extra value.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 90% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

12 Sep 2025PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 537M vs 112M (4.78×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 537M moved against 113M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 463M, against 98.1M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 86% of the extra value.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 83% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

31 Aug 2025USDT transfers up · 1 day · 458k vs 266k (1.72×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 457,641 transfers against 267,507 on a comparable day (+190,134).
  • 199,329 transfers under 1 token, against 41,228 on a comparable day: 83% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.47× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Caveats

  • 97% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.

Confidence: strong

29 Aug 2025PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 5.14k vs 3.76k (1.37×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.40×, USDT 1.48× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 81% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

08 Aug 2025USDC failure rate up · 6 days · 3.41% vs 0.36%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (23,000 gas)
  • 3,037 calls from 2,637 addresses used exactly 23,000 gas (75% of failed calls, 0.024% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.88%.
  • Failure rate 3.41% against 0.55% on comparable days.
  • 48% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 5.9% of the time, regular senders 1.10%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 4.02× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

07 Aug 2025USDT failure rate up · 3 days · 3.15% vs 0.68%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (23,000 gas)
  • 4,855 calls from 4,126 addresses used exactly 23,000 gas (78% of failed calls, 0.085% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.71%.
  • Failure rate 3.15% against 0.71% on comparable days.
  • 45% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 6.3% of the time, regular senders 0.56%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 7.36× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.2× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

03 Aug 2025USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 1.91% vs 0.79%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (23,000 gas)
  • 1,599 calls from 1,275 addresses used exactly 23,000 gas (59% of failed calls, 0.026% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.80%.
  • Failure rate 1.91% against 0.81% on comparable days.
  • 46% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 3.5% of the time, regular senders 0.60%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 3.84× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

01 Aug 2025USDC transfers up · 1 day · 370k vs 269k (1.38×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

17 Jul 2025USDT value moved up · 1 day · 28.1B vs 10.3B (2.74×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 28.1B moved against 11.2B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 13.6B, against 2.97B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 63% of the extra value.
  • The network's average fee was 2.4× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 83% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

04 Jul 2025USDC failure rate down · 1 day · 0.28% vs 0.79%Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.00× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

03 Jul 2025USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 3.21% vs 0.88%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (200,000 gas)
  • 4,901 calls from 56 addresses used exactly 200,000 gas (80% of failed calls, 1% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.66%.
  • Failure rate 3.21% against 0.93% on comparable days.
  • 46% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 6.3% of the time, regular senders 0.58%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 3.36× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

02 Jul 2025PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 322M vs 118M (2.74×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 322M moved against 111M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 250M, against 98.5M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 72% of the extra value.
  • 98% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

25 Jun 2025USDC failure rate down · 2 days · 0.36% vs 0.93%Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 0.51× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 2.2× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

25 Jun 2025PYUSD value moved down · 1 day · 49.4M vs 118M (0.42×)A few actors
The usual very large transfers did not happen
  • 49.4M moved against 111M on a comparable day.
  • The 10 largest transfers moved 44.4M, against 83.6M on a usual day.
  • 81% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

19 Jun 2025PYUSD value moved down · 1 day · 13M vs 122M (0.11×)A few actors
The usual very large transfers did not happen
  • 13M moved against 118M on a comparable day.
  • The 10 largest transfers moved 3.18M, against 85M on a usual day.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 0.53× their comparable days.
  • 83% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

01 Jun 2025PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 6.57k vs 3.83k (1.72×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 6,569 transfers against 2,352 on a comparable day (+4,217).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 5,428 transfers, against 1,318 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.58× their comparable days.
  • 58% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

23 May 2025PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 6.16k vs 4.24k (1.45×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 6,164 transfers against 3,827 on a comparable day (+2,337).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 4,603 transfers, against 2,414 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • The network's average fee was 3.5× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 86% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

02 May 2025PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 5.72k vs 4.18k (1.37×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 5,722 transfers against 3,827 on a comparable day (+1,895).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 4,097 transfers, against 2,414 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • 81% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

24 Apr 2025USDT transfers up · 1 day · 441k vs 273k (1.62×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 441,476 transfers against 260,324 on a comparable day (+181,152).
  • 164,342 transfers under 1 token, against 41,071 on a comparable day: 68% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.40×, USDC 1.60× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 3.3× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 70% of the change came from transfers of under 10 tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

12 Apr 2025USDT value moved up · 1 day · 10.6B vs 4.45B (2.39×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 10.6B moved against 4.7B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 6.74B, against 1.71B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 85% of the extra value.
  • 72% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

02 Apr 2025USDT failure rate down · 1 day · 0.54% vs 1.18%A few actors
The senders that usually fail stopped sending
  • 61% of the previous week's failed calls came from addresses that sent nothing that day.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.63× their comparable days.

Confidence: moderate

30 Mar 2025PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 4.12k vs 1.84k (2.24×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 4,122 transfers against 1,447 on a comparable day (+2,675).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 2,798 transfers, against 712 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 54% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

09 Mar 2025USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 2.71% vs 1.17%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (26,709 gas)
  • 1,942 calls from 2 addresses used exactly 26,709 gas (63% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 1.02%.
  • Failure rate 2.71% against 1.03% on comparable days.
  • 47% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 4.5% of the time, regular senders 1.10%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

28 Feb 2025PYUSD transfers up · 2 days · 6.01k vs 1.93k (3.11×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 6,009 transfers against 2,029 on a comparable day (+3,980).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 4,437 transfers, against 1,005 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.51×, USDT 1.43× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 86% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

22 Feb 2025USDT value moved up · 1 day · 14.5B vs 4.28B (3.40×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 14.5B moved against 4.54B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 7.5B, against 1.42B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 61% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 3.79× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

04 Feb 2025USDT transfers up · 1 day · 288k vs 188k (1.53×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 287,707 transfers against 186,297 on a comparable day (+101,410).
  • 71,271 transfers under 1 token, against 6,170 on a comparable day: 64% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.77× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

03 Feb 2025USDC value moved up · 1 day · 34.3B vs 17B (2.02×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 2.04× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 2.5× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 60% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

19 Jan 2025USDC transfers up · 3 days · 169k vs 103k (1.64×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 2.12×, USDT 1.34× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 4.3× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

19 Jan 2025USDC value moved up · 2 days · 19.2B vs 5.56B (3.44×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.87×, USDT 2.79× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 5.4× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 54% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

19 Jan 2025PYUSD transfers up · 2 days · 2.26k vs 1.09k (2.07×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 2,262 transfers against 1,100 on a comparable day (+1,162).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 1,623 transfers, against 572 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.64× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 4.8× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 98% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

09 Jan 2025USDC transfers up · 1 day · 143k vs 108k (1.32×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

01 Jan 2025USDT value moved down · 1 day · 4.92B vs 17.7B (0.28×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.02×, USDC 0.60× their comparable days.
  • 73% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

01 Jan 2025USDT transfers down · 1 day · 122k vs 194k (0.63×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.

Confidence: moderate

25 Dec 2024USDC value moved down · 1 day · 6.38B vs 16.7B (0.38×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.03×, USDT 0.26× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 81% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

25 Dec 2024USDT value moved down · 1 day · 4.05B vs 17.7B (0.23×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.03×, USDC 0.41× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 74% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

20 Dec 2024USDC transfers up · 1 day · 148k vs 106k (1.40×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • 52% of the change came from transfers of 1k to 100k tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

23 Nov 2024USDT value moved up · 3 days · 13B vs 2.48B (5.22×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 2.98× their comparable days.
  • 58% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

16 Nov 2024USDT value moved up · 4 days · 6.35B vs 2.4B (2.65×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 2.46× their comparable days.
  • 78% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

12 Nov 2024USDT value moved up · 5 days · 27.2B vs 7.29B (3.73×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 27.2B moved against 7.56B on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 15.7B, against 2.16B for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 69% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.94× their comparable days.
  • 88% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

10 Nov 2024USDC value moved up · 2 days · 7.69B vs 2.3B (3.35×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 3.49× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 2.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 52% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

08 Nov 2024PYUSD value moved down · 1 day · 8.72M vs 84.5M (0.10×)A few actors
The usual very large transfers did not happen
  • 8.72M moved against 85.9M on a comparable day.
  • The 10 largest transfers moved 5.13M, against 64.7M on a usual day.
  • 52% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

06 Nov 2024USDC value moved up · 1 day · 22.3B vs 9.03B (2.46×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 3.91×, USDT 2.95× their comparable days.
  • 61% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

02 Nov 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 93.7M vs 9.47M (9.89×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 93.7M moved against 8.77M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 92.4M, against 7.37M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 100% of the extra value.
  • 72% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

26 Oct 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 39.4M vs 8.54M (4.61×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 39.4M moved against 8.77M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 38M, against 7.37M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 100% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 1.52× their comparable days.
  • 92% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

19 Oct 2024PYUSD value moved down · 1 day · 1.12M vs 9.47M (0.12×)A few actors
The usual very large transfers did not happen
  • 1.12M moved against 8.77M on a comparable day.
  • The 10 largest transfers moved 261k, against 6.26M on a usual day.
  • 71% of the change came from transfers of 1k to 100k tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

12 Sep 2024PYUSD failure rate up · 1 day · 7.82% vs about 0%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (64,474 gas)
  • 110 calls from 52 addresses used exactly 64,474 gas (99% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.076%.
  • Failure rate 7.82% against 0.00% on comparable days.
  • 50% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 15.6% of the time, regular senders 0.14%.

Confidence: strong

09 Sep 2024PYUSD failure rate up · 1 day · 7.17% vs about 0%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (64,474 gas)
  • 87 calls from 36 addresses used exactly 64,474 gas (99% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.088%.
  • Failure rate 7.17% against 0.00% on comparable days.
  • 47% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 15.4% of the time, regular senders 0.00%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

07 Sep 2024USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 3.43% vs 0.94%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (26,847 gas)
  • 3,240 calls from 60 addresses used exactly 26,847 gas (77% of failed calls, 13% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.79%.
  • Failure rate 3.43% against 1.02% on comparable days.
  • 60% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 5.5% of the time, regular senders 0.31%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 87.49× their comparable days.

Confidence: strong

04 Sep 2024USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 3.00% vs 0.76%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (26,847 gas)
  • 3,094 calls from 78 addresses used exactly 26,847 gas (81% of failed calls, 22% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.59%.
  • Failure rate 3.00% against 0.81% on comparable days.
  • 48% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 5.9% of the time, regular senders 0.31%.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 115.36× their comparable days.

Confidence: strong

02 Sep 2024PYUSD failure rate up · 2 days · 30.98% vs about 0%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (64,474 gas)
  • 403 calls from 65 addresses used exactly 64,474 gas (100% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.00%.
  • Failure rate 30.98% against 0.00% on comparable days.
  • 62% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 49.6% of the time, regular senders 0.00%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

30 Aug 2024PYUSD failure rate up · 7 days · 29.77% vs about 0%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (64,474 gas)
  • 548 calls from 62 addresses used exactly 64,474 gas (100% of failed calls, 0% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.00%.
  • Failure rate 29.77% against 0.00% on comparable days.
  • 57% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 52.4% of the time, regular senders 0.00%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.2× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

29 Aug 2024USDC failure rate down · 2 days · 0.18% vs 0.52%Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

24 Aug 2024USDT transfers up · 1 day · 172k vs 129k (1.33×)Bots and automation
Dust: a wave of transfers under 1 token
  • 171,737 transfers against 130,044 on a comparable day (+41,693).
  • 31,418 transfers under 1 token, against 4,094 on a comparable day: 66% of the extra transfers.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.41×, USDC 1.34× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

20 Aug 2024USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 1.70% vs 0.78%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 1.70% against 0.78% on comparable days.
  • 49% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 3.1% of the time, regular senders 0.42%.
  • 87% of failures came from new addresses.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 2.12× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

20 Aug 2024USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 0.86% vs 0.41%Bots and automation
New addresses failing; regular senders unaffected
  • Failure rate 0.86% against 0.38% on comparable days.
  • 55% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 1.1% of the time, regular senders 0.56%.
  • 71% of failures came from new addresses.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 2.30× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

05 Aug 2024USDT transfers up · 2 days · 256k vs 164k (1.55×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.83× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 8.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

05 Aug 2024USDC transfers up · 4 days · 165k vs 86.9k (1.89×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDT 1.54× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 8.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 57% of the change came from transfers of 1k to 100k tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: moderate

05 Aug 2024USDT value moved up · 1 day · 18.4B vs 7.06B (2.61×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.81×, USDC 2.28× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 8.1× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 52% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

01 Aug 2024PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 1.71k vs 1.18k (1.44×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 1,706 transfers against 1,064 on a comparable day (+642).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 933 transfers, against 536 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • 85% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

25 Jul 2024PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 1.72k vs 1.17k (1.47×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.5× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 83% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

28 Jun 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 307M vs 16.5M (18.55×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 307M moved against 25.4M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 263M, against 23M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 85% of the extra value.
  • The network's average fee was 0.5× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 76% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

23 Jun 2024USDC failure rate up · 2 days · 1.02% vs 0.38%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (36,277 gas)
  • 203 calls from 199 addresses used exactly 36,277 gas (70% of failed calls, 19% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.30%.
  • Failure rate 1.02% against 0.38% on comparable days.
  • 61% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 1.6% of the time, regular senders 0.064%.
  • The network's average fee was 0.4× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

19 Jun 2024USDC value moved down · 1 day · 4.64B vs 10B (0.46×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 0.45× their comparable days.
  • 72% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

18 Jun 2024PYUSD transfers up · 2 days · 1.32k vs 871 (1.51×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 1,317 transfers against 774 on a comparable day (+543).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 709 transfers, against 381 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • 90% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

13 Jun 2024PYUSD transfers up · 3 days · 1.48k vs 878 (1.69×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • 59% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

06 Jun 2024PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 1.18k vs 856 (1.38×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • 73% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

22 May 2024USDT failure rate up · 1 day · 2.07% vs 0.99%Bots and automation
One program: failed calls share an exact gas fingerprint (60,000 gas)
  • 1,508 calls from 34 addresses used exactly 60,000 gas (64% of failed calls, 16% on comparable days); without them the failure rate is 0.75%.
  • Failure rate 2.07% against 0.99% on comparable days.
  • 44% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 1.2% of the time, regular senders 2.77%.

Confidence: strong

09 May 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 58.6M vs 19.7M (2.98×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 58.6M moved against 12.7M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 56.5M, against 9.18M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 103% of the extra value.
  • The network's average fee was 0.1× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 100% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

29 Apr 2024PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 766 vs 541 (1.42×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.2× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 94% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

25 Apr 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 345M vs 17.5M (19.74×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 345M moved against 12.7M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 342M, against 9.18M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 100% of the extra value.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 63% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, through other contracts.

Confidence: strong

22 Apr 2024PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 759 vs 539 (1.41×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • The network's average fee was 0.2× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.
  • 53% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

17 Apr 2024PYUSD transfers up · 2 days · 1.36k vs 534 (2.54×)A few actors
Ten senders made most of the extra transfers
  • 1,356 transfers against 536 on a comparable day (+820).
  • The day's 10 busiest senders made 814 transfers, against 288 for the busiest 10 on a usual day.
  • The network's average fee was 0.5× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: strong

14 Apr 2024USDC transfers up · 2 days · 95.9k vs 61.6k (1.56×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: PYUSD 1.79× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 0.3× a comparable day: a quiet day for all of Ethereum.

Confidence: moderate

23 Mar 2024USDC failure rate up · 1 day · 0.78% vs 0.31%A few actors
Ten addresses made most of the failures
  • 10 addresses made 69% of all failures.
  • Failure rate 0.78% against 0.30% on comparable days.
  • 62% of calls came from addresses not seen on the comparable days; they failed 0.5% of the time, regular senders 1.19%.

Caveats

  • 100% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.
  • Failed and successful rows were rewritten alike, so the rewrite did not create the failures.

Confidence: moderate

15 Mar 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 67.2M vs 15.6M (4.32×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 67.2M moved against 20.5M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 60.7M, against 16.7M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 94% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.98×, USDT 1.75× their comparable days.
  • 58% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Caveats

  • 100% of the day's rows were written over 48 hours late: the source rewrote this day, so its numbers may differ from what was first published.

Confidence: strong

11 Mar 2024USDT value moved up · 1 day · 11.9B vs 5.33B (2.24×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.78× their comparable days.
  • 80% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

08 Mar 2024USDT value moved up · 1 day · 14B vs 5.82B (2.41×)Broad real change
Market-wide: the other stablecoins moved the same way
  • No pipeline problem, and no single group explains the move.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.82× their comparable days.
  • 71% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

04 Mar 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 162M vs 25.6M (6.32×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 162M moved against 22.5M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 146M, against 20.2M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 90% of the extra value.
  • Other stablecoins moved the same way that day: USDC 1.77×, USDT 1.88× their comparable days.
  • The network's average fee was 3.0× a comparable day: a busy day for all of Ethereum.
  • 71% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

01 Mar 2024PYUSD value moved up · 1 day · 177M vs 17.5M (10.15×)A few actors
Ten addresses sent most of the extra value
  • 177M moved against 20.5M on a comparable day.
  • The day's 10 biggest senders sent 174M, against 16.7M for the biggest 10 on a usual day: 101% of the extra value.
  • 67% of the change came from transfers of 100k and over tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: strong

28 Feb 2024PYUSD transfers up · 1 day · 543 vs 336 (1.61×)Broad real change
Many senders moved together; no single group explains it
  • No pipeline problem, and no group of senders, transfers or tokens accounts for most of the move.
  • 76% of the change came from transfers of 10 to 1k tokens, sent straight to the token contract.

Confidence: moderate

How to read the verdicts.

  • Pipeline The rows themselves are wrong: missing, repeated, incomplete or in the wrong units.
  • Data in doubt The source rewrote the day later; its numbers may have changed.
  • Bots and automation One program, a fleet of new addresses, or a dust wave.
  • A few actors A handful of addresses or transfers made most of the move.
  • Supply event The issuer created or destroyed tokens.
  • New senders Many new senders, with no sign of automation.
  • Broad real change Real, and spread across many senders; the data alone does not say why.
  • No clear move Against the same weekday in ordinary weeks, the day was not really unusual.

Confidence is strong when removing the group brings the metric back near its usual level, and moderate otherwise. A verdict says what the data shows, not why people did it: that needs other sources, as on the Investigations page.

All 133 episodes were checked on the raw rows. Every table behind this page is published in watch/ on Hugging Face, including every fact behind every verdict.